I was a cocky beginning trader. Soon after attending a stock trading seminar, I had several big wins. In my own mind, I was the exception to any and all stock market trading principles. I could do no wrong. My short-lived reign as a trading Adonis came to an abrupt end. All my money began raining down into the pockets of real stock market professionals. Fortunately, I wised up before it was too late.

In short, I was a young punk who knew everything about nothing. I often times had to learn things the hard. Learning to trade in the stock market was no exception. So, here are my top three ways to prevent an STD.

#3 Way To Avoid An STD

Perform thorough market research! Taking proper research for granted is a one-way ticket to Brokeville. Trust me, I know. Due diligence is required in order to side step a poor stock decision. Remember, getting into a bad trade is simple…getting out is costly. Give market research the time and attention it deserves.

#2 Way To Avoid an STD

Remove hope from your emotional make up when trading! Wishful thinking is a dangerous mindset to be in when you are a stock trader. Hope and wishful thinking lead to irrational decisions based on emotions rather than factual information. Going down with the ship is far from an act of nobility. You will make mistakes. As a trader, you must be willing to make corrections quickly. In the stock market, making too many errors, too fast will certainly cause you to be prematurely ousted from the markets if you do not adhere to the method #1.

#1 Way To Avoid an STD

Make use of a protective stop loss! After placing your order, ALWAYS set a protective stop. Failure is not to far off in the distance for a trader who handles the duties of risk management in the absence of a stop loss. A stop loss is not perfect but the only insurance policy a trader has against stock trading career ending losses. Stop being a philanthropic trader who continues to give money away to the markets.

Using a protective stop loss continues to be the most effective method of risk management. Fortunately, it is also the easiest of the three to apply. Methods 1 and 2 are developed over time as you gain experience. Simply use my top three ways of preventing an STD and you have cut your chances of getting burned.

The days of buying and holding stocks and mutual funds for years are gone; nowadays, futures and option markets offer some of the best opportunities to make money trading in volatile times. But like all investments, high risk is involved, and in order to become a successful trader you must be prepared to work as a geopolitical analyst, a money manager, and an expert in all types of commodity markets. Futures & Options For Dummies will show you how trading is done and how to survive and succeed in these ever-changing markets. Filled with nuts-and-bolts advice, you’ll soon discover how to manage the risks involved and reap the rewards of futures and options trading. This straightforward guide gives you the tools you need to understand: Ins and outs of trading futures and options How to analyze the markets and develop strategies Interest-rate futures and speculating with currencies How to stock up on indexes The direction of commodity fut (more…)

The numbers don’t lie! 9 out 10 stock traders will fail, miserably! That is the same ratio for starting a business. At least in the case of running a business, there’s a 5-year failure window. I would say that a very small minority of beginning traders makes it past their first year. The reason for such an unbalanced success/fail ratio is simple. 9 out of 10 people entering the market would be better categorized as gamblers and not traders. Yes, I too, was one of those gamblers masquerading as a stock market trader.

Successful traders employ proven, winning trade strategies. Most beginning traders systematically make the same mistake over and over again. Venturing into the market without a sound trading plan is financial suicide. Here is a guide to structuring your own winning trading strategy.

Many principles of running a successful business can be applied to stock trading. Having a trading plan is essential to the success of your new venture. Consider this trading plan to be your road map that guides you to stock trading mastery. Skipping this step will ensure your permanent residency in Loss Vegas.

The trading plan must outline the why or purpose for trading the markets. If your purpose is to simply make money, you are in for a rude awakening. The number one objective of a stock trader is to trade well NOT make money. Focusing on trading well will result in you making money. Making profitable trades is a by-product of trading well. Calculating profits while practicing your trade is counter-productive to your efforts. You certainly wouldn’t want a lawyer tabulating his fees while researching your case, would you? The same focus needs to be applied while you trade. There will be plenty of time for counting your windfall once you have closed out your position.

After committing yourself to learning to trade well, the next step in the process is executing the plan. This includes but is not limited to:

1. Conducting Market Research-stock selection, risk/reward ratios

2. Pinpointing Entry Points

3. Money Management- where to place protective stops

4. Establishing Exit Points

5. Trade Review

I use this exact process when trading stocks and options. Deviating from your trading plan can hinder your progression as a trader in two areas. First, the effectiveness of a trading strategy cannot be accurately measured when a trader is inconsistent in the execution of a trading strategy. And secondly, altering your strategy in the midst of a trade is hazardous to your wealth. A prime example would be moving your protective stop in the opposite direction of your trade. This allows for a wider, much riskier stop loss cushion. Moving protective stops in the opposite direction of the trade is a sure sign of a rookie trader.

Following this simple formula will not eliminate visits to Loss Vegas but will ensure shorter, less frequent stays. Happy trading and here’s to your success!

Introduction

First, let’s take a look at the carry trade. In short, the carry trade is used when an investor or speculator is attempting to capture the price appreciation or depreciation in a currency while also profiting on the interest differential. Using this strategy, a trader is essentially selling a currency that is offering a relatively low interest rate while buying a currency that is offering a higher interest rate. This way, the trader is able to profit from the differential of interest rates.

With the introduction of the carry trade , yen currency pairs have become the speculator’s preference. Currency crosses like the GBP/JPY and NZD/JPY have been able to net small intraday or even longer term profits for the currency trader as speculation continues to support the bid tone. But how can one enter into a market that is already seemingly overheated? Even if a trader could, what would be a good price, and doesn’t everything that goes up come down? The answer is easier and simpler than most believe. In this article we’ll show you how to use carry trades to profit from overwhelming market momentum.

Definition

A strategy in which an investor sells a certain currency with a relatively low interest rate and uses the funds to purchase a different currency yielding a higher interest rate. A trader using this strategy attempts to capture the difference between the rates – which can often be substantial, depending on the amount of leverage the investor chooses to use.

For example, taking one of the favored pairs in the market right now, let’s take a look at the New Zealand dollar/Japanese yen currency pair. Here, a carry trader would borrow Japanese yen and then convert it into New Zealand dollars. After the conversion, the speculator would then buy a Kiwi bond for the corresponding amount, earning 8%. Therefore, the investor makes a 7.5% return on the interest alone after taking into account the 0.5% that is paid on the yen funds.

Now on the earning side of the trade, the investor is also hoping that the price will appreciate in order to make further gains on the transaction. In this case, anyone that has invested in the NZD/JPY trade has been able to reap plenty of benefits.

Evolution of the carry trade

The first wave of carry trade started in the late 1980s when financial speculators borrowed in yen and invested in European securities. This first phase ended in 1993 after the Japanese bubble collapsed, Japanese investors retreated home and the yen appreciated.

The second round of carry trade began in the summer of 1995 and ended in late 1998 after Russia defaulted, the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund collapsed, and the Japanese government planned to recapitalize the distressed banking sector. The yen rose 15% against the dollar in a week.

The recent wave of the yen carry trade is built on the Japanese government’s policy of keeping its interest rate and currency low in order to export its way out of recession and deflation. It has continued until (10-17 August) when the yen jumped 10% caused by the default in sub-prime mortgages and the knock-on effects on equity markets worldwide.

Profitability in carry trade

Over the past five years, official interest rates have been lowest in Japan and Switzerland, and the yen and the Swiss franc are the most commonly cited funding currencies (Graph 1). The Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and sterling have appreciated steadily and have been cited as popular target currencies, although a number of other currencies are often used as well (eg the Brazilian real and the South African rand). Since 2004, with the normalization of policy rates from historically low levels, the US dollar has moved from being a funding currency to a potential target.

The carry-to-risk ratio is a popular ex ante measure of the attractiveness of carry trades. It adjusts the interest rate differential by the risk of future exchange rate movements, where this risk is proxied by the expected volatility (implied by foreign exchange options) of the relevant currency pair. By this measure, carry trade positions that were short yen and long target currencies such as the Australian dollar were increasingly promising from 2002 to 2005.

Graph: 1

Sources: Bloomberg; JPMorgan Chase; national data; BIS calculations

These positions have remained so on average, despite two bouts of higher volatility which led to significant, albeit temporary, declines in the attractiveness of some target currencies (eg the South African rand).Over the longer term, however, the attractiveness of carry trades relative to other investments is less clear (Burnside et al (2006)).

Risk reversals – or the price difference between two equivalently out of the-money options – potentially provide an alternative market indicator of perceived risks in carry trades. If the risk associated with carry trade returns is not generalized uncertainty about future values of the exchange rates, as the carry-to-risk measure implicitly assumes, but rather directional uncertainty, this will be more effectively captured by risk reversals calculated from out-of-the money options. A strong correlation between the two measures is apparent in Graph 1. In addition, Gagnon and Chaboud (2007) argue that movements in risk reversals tend to post-date large exchange rate movements in periods of high volatility.

The Mechanics of Earning Interest

One of the cornerstones of the carry trade strategy is the ability to earn interest. The income is accrued every day for long carry trades with triple rollover given on Wednesday to account for Saturday and Sunday rolls. Roughly speaking, the daily interest is calculated in the following way:

(Interest Rate of the Currency that you are Long – Interest Rate of the Currency that you are Short) x Notional of Your Position

———————————————————————–

No of Days in a Year

For example one lot of NZD/JPY that has a notional of 100,000, we compute interest the following way:

(.8 – 0.005) x 100,000 = approximately $20 a day

365

It is important to realize that this amount can only be earned by traders who are long NZD/JPY. For those who are fading the carry, interest will need to be paid every day.

Flags and Pennants in carry trade

At present in this currency rising trend, how can a trader really capture market profits in the bull market? One such formation that has proved to be a great setup may be the all too familiar, flag and pennant formations. This has been especially useful in carry currency crosses such as British pound/Japanese yen and New Zealand dollar/Japanese yen. Both formations are used in similar capacities; they are great short-term tools that can be applied to capture nothing but continuations in the foreign exchange market. They are both even more applicable when the market, especially in the case of carry trade currencies, has been trading higher and higher in every session.

To get a better sense of how this works, let’s quickly review the differences between a flag and a pennant:

• A flag formation is a charting pattern that is indicative of consolidation following an upward surge in price. The name is attributed to the fact that it resembles an actual flag with a downward-sloping body (due to price consolidation) and a visually evident post. Targets are also very reliable in flag formations. Traders who use this technical pattern will reference the distance from the bottom of the post (significant support level) to the top. Subsequently, when the price breaks the upper trend line of the flag, the distance of the post will more often than not be equivalent to the next level of resistance.

• A pennant formation is similar to the flag formation – it differs only in the form of consolidation. Instead of a body of consolidation that moves in the opposite direction of the post (as in the case of a flag), the pennant’s body is simply a symmetrical triangle. Although pennants have been known to slope downward as well, the textbook formation has also been noted as a symmetrical triangle, hence the name.

Similar setups are seen in the cross currency pairs, giving the trader plenty of opportunities in the currency market, with or without dollar exposure. Taking another market favorite, the British pound/Japanese yen, let’s take a look at how this method can be applied to the chart.

In the short-term 60-minute chart in Graph 2, a typically long flag formation is coming around in the GBP/JPY currency pair. In order to establish the formation initially, it is recommended that the chartist draw the topside trend line first. This rule is a must as an initial drawing of the bottom trend line may lead to varying interpretations. Once the initial downward-sloping trend line is drawn, the bottom is a simple duplicate. Here, the trader will make sure to note a touch by the session bodies rather than the wicks in verifying the formation as true. This is to isolate only true price action and not volatility or common “noise” that may occur in the short term.

Step by Step procedure for carry traders:

Now let’s take a look at a step by step process that will allow traders to enter on the carry trade momentum in the market. Figure 3 shows a great opportunity in the New Zealand dollar/Japanese yen cross pair. Following the complete downturn that occurred July 9 – July11, 2007, a visual burst can be seen by chartists as bidders take the currency higher over the next 48 hours, establishing a temporary top at Point A.

Source: FX Trek Intellicharts Figure 3: Following A Sharp Decline, NZDJPY Vaults Higher Off Of Support

1. After consolidation, draw the topside trend line first, completing the formation with the duplicate bottom trend line giving the chartist the flag boundaries.

2. On a sign of a trend line break, measure the distance from the bottom of the post to the top. In this instance, the bottom support of the post is 93.81 with the top at 95.74. This gives the trader a potential for 193 pips on the trade after a break of the top trend line.

3. Once there is a confirmed break of the trend line, place the entry that is at the session close or lower of the finished candle. In this case, the break occurs approximately at 95.40 with the entry being placed at that session’s close of 95.46 (Point C). Subsequently, a corresponding stop is placed five pips below the session low of 95.37. Ultimately, the position is well within normal risk parameters as it is risking 14 pips to make 193 pips.

4. Set initial and full targets. With the full move estimated at 193 pips, we get a partial distance of 96 pips (193 pips / 2). As a result, the initial target is set for 96.42 (Point B).

5. Set contingent trailing stops. Once the initial target is achieved, the overall position should be reduced by half with the rest being protected by a trailing stop set at the entry price (or break-even). This will allow for further gains while protecting against adverse moves against whatever is left. Longer term strategies will hold to the entry price as the ultimate stop, promoting a worst-case scenario of break-even.

Best Way to Trade Carry

With the pros and cons of carry trading in mind, the best way to trade carry is through a basket. When it comes to carry trades, at any point in time, one central bank may be holding interest rates steady while another may be increasing or decreasing them. With a basket that consists of the three highest and the three lowest yielding currencies, any one currency pair only represents a portion of the whole portfolio; therefore, even if there is carry trade liquidation in one currency pair, the losses are controlled by owning a basket. This is actually the preferred way of trading carry for investment banks and hedge funds. This strategy may be a bit tricky for individuals because trading a basket would naturally require greater capital, but it can be done with smaller lot sizes. The key with a basket is to dynamically change the portfolio allocations based upon the interest rate curve and monetary policies of the central banks.

Conclusion

The carry trade is a long-term strategy that is far more suitable for investors than traders because investors will revel in the fact that they will only need to check price quotes a few times a week rather than a few times a day. True carry traders, including the leading banks on , will hold their positions for months (if not years) at a time. The cornerstone of the carry trade strategy is to get paid while you wait, so waiting is actually a good thing.

Partly due to the demand for carry trades, trends in the currency market are strong and directional. This is important for short-term traders as well because, in a currency pair where the interest rate differential is very significant, it may be far more profitable to look for opportunities to buy on dips in the direction of the carry than to try to fade it. For those who insist on fading AUD/JPY strength for example, they should be wary of holding short positions for too long because with each passing day, more interest will need to be paid. The best way for shorter term traders to look at interest is that earning it helps to reduce your average price while paying interest increases it. For an intraday trade, the carry will not matter, but for a three-, four- or five-day trade, the direction of carry becomes far more meaningful.

The underlying probability calculation assumes that the stock price movements are random events, like throwing dice. Of course, stock price movements are not purely random, but are affected by news, rumors, crowd psychology and many more factors. But it isn’t a bad approximation for the reality, especially when averaged over many stocks and over long periods of time.

The essence of the problem derives from the old financial adage, there’s no free lunch. If you were to establish trades with these probabilities, the returns will be rather small, of the order of 7% to 10%. But the losses would be huge, of the order of 90% to 100%. The bottom line is that the one or two losses each year would be large enough to wipe out all of the gains for the year. Thus, there is only a small probability of a losing trade, but when it happens, it will be a devastating loss.

Some traders will readily acknowledge that these high probability trades don’t make sense, and will sell the idea of so called “low risk” trades, where the potential loss is small, hence the label of low risk. These trades are simply the mirror image of the high probability trade. The low risk trade is characterized by a huge potential gain, of the order of 200% or more, but there is a very small probability of that successful outcome. In this case, one would lose a small amount on the trade 10 or 11 months out of the year and then have 1 or 2 large gains. The problem is that the large gains would not compensate for the large number of small losses.

In either case, the outcome is the same, a small net loss, especially after commissions and other costs of trading. So is options trading inherently a losing game? No, not necessarily, there are many examples of successful, long term options traders. They succeed by paying attention to two critical factors: 1) keeping one’s ratio of winning trades to losing trades as high as possible, and 2) minimizing the losses on the inevitable losing trades. But those topics require a much more extensive treatment than can be done in a short article.

One’s choice of either the high probability trade or the low risk trade is not a financial issue – neither is inherently superior. Neither trade will be successful long term without other considerations. One’s choice of the high probability or the low risk trade is primarily a matter of matching one’s trading style and risk tolerance with the right trade.

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