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	<title>Protective Put Secrets &#187; Options Trading Strategies</title>
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	<description>How to protect your position with a Protective Put</description>
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		<title>How to Trade Options â Diversified Trading Stock Options but Still Suffering Concentration Risk</title>
		<link>http://protectiveput.net/how-to-trade-options-a%c2%80%c2%93-diversified-trading-stock-options-but-still-suffering-concentration-risk</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 17 Jan 2010 07:48:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[asset allocation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[How To Trade Options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Portfolio Management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Option Trading]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[



Applying a more complete definition of diversification can help retail option traders diversify their portfolio profitably, beyond equities.A buddy started online options trading from home, in the last 6 months. He was trading a mix of Verticals, Calendars and Iron Condors using highly liquid Indexes but was failing to get consistent profits.Â  Naturally, I asked, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Applying a more complete definition of diversification can help retail option traders diversify their portfolio profitably, beyond equities.A buddy started online options trading from home, in the last 6 months. He was trading a mix of Verticals, Calendars and Iron Condors using highly liquid Indexes but was failing to get consistent profits.Â  Naturally, I asked, âWhich Indexes?âHe answered, âDJX, DIA, MNX, QQQQ, RUT, SMH, SPY and XSP.Â  Iâve incorporated broad-based Indexing across large, mid and small-cap stocks to remove single stock exposure.Â  Having learnt how to trade options with Verticals, Calendars and Iron Condors, Iâm spreading across these various Indexes. Iâm being careful with money management, 2%-5% per trade, Iâve diversified risk, yes?âNo. He has partially diversified a portion within his portfolio; but, is still suffering concentration risk.Â  All he has really done is allocate capital across multiple products, using various option spread types; yet, all his trading capital is stuck in equities.In choosing the MNX, QQQQ, SMH, SPY and XSP, there is a duplication of stock components in these Indexes: for example, AMAT (Applied Materials) is a component of all 5 Indexes.Â  Bear in mind the MNX and the QQQQ are both smaller versions of the Nasdaq100 Index, the only difference being the MNX is an European styled cash settled Index and the cubes (QQQQ) is an American style stock settled Index.Â  Another example, Apple (AAPL) is a component of the MNX/QQQQ and SPY/XSP &#8211; both the SPY and the XSP track the S&amp;P 500, the SPY is American style stock settled and the XSP is European style cash settled.Â  Duplication is not diversification.Â  Even if you allocated capital to the smaller versions of the Dow: DJX, the European style cash settled version of the DIA which is the American style stock settled version.Â  Moreover, if you extended capital allocation to trade the RUT, thinking you are diversifying into small-cap stocks and away from large-caps, you just sunk more of your trading capital into equities.Â  Again, you cannot achieve diversification by adding more capital in the same asset class.Â  That is concentration risk in stocks. Do not confuse asset category (market capitalization) with asset class.Why bother diversifying across Asset Classes? To answer this question, Iâll use an example of a well known traded stock:Â  Apple (AAPL).Â  You wonât need to understand Fundamental Analysis to follow the reasoning.Summarizing a financial extract from its Annual Report, Apple has almost ~30% of its Net Sales distributed across: UK, France, Germany, Spain &amp; Ireland and Japan.Â  Appleâs customers in Europe are paying in EUR/GBP and customers in Japan will be paying in JPY.Â  Even though you are trading Apple directly as a US parented firm listed in the US and the currency of the parent is USD denominated, the company has currency exposure to the EUR/GBP and JPY arising from operating sales entities in those jurisdictions.Â  So, you are already exposed to currency and geographic risks by choosing Apple as a product to trade, even though you are constructing an option trade on the stock.So, it makes sense, rather than have these exposures wrapped inside the stock, where you are subordinating non-equity risks to the stock, to deliberately surface the risks in Geography, Commodities and Currencies.Â  Then, isolate these elements and trade them directly using optionable Geographic ETFs, Commodity ETFs and Currency ETFs.Is there an example of a consistently profitable and diversified portfolio to see the merits of trading options beyond equities? Yes.Â  Follow the link below, entitled âConsistent Resultsâ to learn how to trade options using a multi-asset class set up.Â  Notice how the profits step up gradually, from the mid hundreds to the higher hundreds; then, from the higher hundreds into the thousands.Â  While, the losses are contained within the mid to lower hundreds.Â  Diversification to trade options in non-stock asset classes using Geographic ETFs, Commodity ETFs and Currency ETFs, deliberately dilutes the concentration risk in the portfolioâs P/L.If you are puzzled, yet intrigued, you may well ask, âI donât need to Beta-weight the Deltas of my option positions; then, hedge using Futures?Â  Do I need to adjust my existing positions by embedding single options; or, morph the original spread into a hybrid option strategy?âNo, is the answer to both questions. Just as it would not make sense within stocks to say Beta-weight a company like GE to the SMH (Semiconductors Holdrs), there is even less sense to Beta-weight a broad-based Index like the SPY to an Emerging Market ETF, Commodity ETF or Currency ETF.Â  Diversification is designed to break the commonality in correlation between the asset price movements of products, in the retail traderâs portfolio structured for online options trading.Â  Adjustments fail to provide the consistency in laddering up the profits as seen in the portfolio, because an adjusted trade often fails to restore, let alone improve the original profile of the tradeâs volatility and probability that was bought or sold.How is this possible? Volatility can be added to/reduced from the portfolio, as not all Asset Classes or Sectors or Individual Companies or Countries move up/down in value ALL at the same time; and/or, ALL at the same rate. It is the volatility level across various asset classes that is targeted for diversification.To conclude, hereâs the point to reflect on.Â  While diversification alone does not guarantee a profitable portfolio, do you think you are diversified trading stock options but still suffering concentration risk? Think deeper. </p>
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		<title>How to Trade Options &#8211; Book Review &#8211; Lawrence G. McMillan, McMillan on Options</title>
		<link>http://protectiveput.net/how-to-trade-options-book-review-lawrence-g-mcmillan-mcmillan-on-options</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Jan 2010 20:26:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[How To Trade Options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Implied Volatility]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Intermarket]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Larry Mcmillan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Volatility]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Larry McMillan is an iconic Hercules of the options world.  Few option titans have the depth and range of grounded insights to devote 630+ pages to a publication.  Do not be overwhelmed by what initially appears as a titanic chronicle.McMillan commits extensive effort to clarify the proper use of misused trading terms.  He rectifies inaccurate [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Larry McMillan is an iconic Hercules of the options world.  Few option titans have the depth and range of grounded insights to devote 630+ pages to a publication.  Do not be overwhelmed by what initially appears as a titanic chronicle.McMillan commits extensive effort to clarify the proper use of misused trading terms.  He rectifies inaccurate practices by applying the mechanics of the math that is material and helps you visualize this with graphically rich worked examples.  Every chapter has its own summary, emphasizing specific techniques to refine your own trading methods.There are adequate reader reviews on Amazon and Google Book Search, to help you decide if you will get the book. For those who have just started or are about to read the book, I’ve summarized the core concepts in the larger and essential chapters to help you get through them quicker.The number on the right of the title of the chapter is the number of pages contained within that chapter. It is not the page number.  The percentages represent how much each chapter makes up of the 630 pages in total, excluding appendices.1  Option History, Definitions, and Terms.  44, 6.98%.2  An Overview of Option Strategies.  60, 9.52%.3  The Versatile Option.  82, 13.02%.4  The Predictive Power of Options.  164, 26.03%.5  Trading Systems and Strategies.  90, 14.29%.6  Trading Volatility and Other Theoretical Approaches.  128, 20.32%.7  Other Important Considerations.  48, 7.62%.Focus on chapters 4, 5 and 6, which makes up about 61% of the book. These chapters are relevant for practical trading purposes.  Here are the key points for these focus chapters, which I’m summarizing from a retail option trader’s perspective. 4 The Predictive Power of Options. Within this chapter, focus on these sections: Using Stock Option Volume as an Indicator, Implied Volatility Can Predict a Change of Trend and The Put–Call Ratio.  Here, you are taught to spot trading opportunities where the daily total option volume is more than double the average option volume. For highly liquid Index products, a higher ratio is required.  There are filters to validate the use of volume speculation.  These filters include ruling out the impact of arbitrage, total volume concentrated in too few strikes that are not identifiable as block trades, spread trades concentrated in just two series of strikes and over concentration of daily volume in ITM strikes that does not have the percentage leverage of ATM/OTM strikes.The section on Implied Volatility evaluates the treatment of IV as it moves between its expected ranges towards extreme boundaries.  IV Mean Reversion is involved. Implied Volatility must leave from where it is currently trading at (be it IV for ITM, ATM or OTM strikes), to converge at zero on expiration date.  Though, price can go anywhere (up, down or stay flat).  The boundary analysis of IV is applied to covered call writing, index options, the seasonality of volatility and trading volatility directly using the VIX.  Other volatility companion measures should be used in combination with the VIX, namely the VXO, QQV and VXN as sentiment gauges.McMillan differentiates between a “standard” put-call ratio versus the “dollar-weighted” put-call ratio. There is further refinement on the applicability of specific ratios to equity only put-call ratios, distinct from index put-call ratios and futures put-call ratios.  Weighted ratios accentuate the extremities of overbought/oversold conditions when sentiment has reached its peak or valley to signal impending changes, which is overlooked in using a standard ratio that is not weighted.  Sentiment needs to be sensitized with the weightage.5 Trading Systems and Strategies. Pay attention to these sections, which make up about 68% of the chapter: Intermarket Spreads and Other Seasonal Tendencies. The section covers European options that do trade at a discount to parity, spread differentials between heating oil futures and unleaded gas futures, small-cap outperformance with the January effect, spread differentials between gold stocks versus the price of gold, spread differentials between oil stocks versus the price of oil, the relationship between the utilities sector and 30-year bonds, other relationships between sector indexes/futures and Pairs Trading.  There is convergence and divergence at work in these specific products and asset classes identified. For a unique set of relationships, McMillan clearly explains why some relationships must be treated as cross-correlated dependencies versus independent treatment of non-correlated mutually exclusive events. There is also clarity on how to design your trading system to collectively control the diversification of risks across these distinct linear relationships and inverse interplays.The section on Other Seasonal Tendencies challenges August as a dull month with muted volatility in the pits, alerts you to September-October as months to be long puts but short futures and identifies cyclical periods of rallies in late October and late January. McMillan confronts the conventional reasons for seasonal nuances. For example, the traditional leave periods of floor traders/market makers/institutions who move 85+% of exchange volume does not dampen volatility in the pits and there is no slack during the Labour Day holiday period. He blends the business cycle in with the use of seasonality. For example, companies that are stock components of the S&amp;P 500 with cash rich balance sheets will need to periodically slim down their current asset holdings and redeploy cash into longer-term investments. Firms must maximize shareholder’s equity and cannot just sit on cash.  McMillan explains when and how to position your trades in view of the common market practice of “window dressing”, in context of cash flow contraction and the velocity of money during these periods of fiscal adjustments to the books of corporations.6 Trading Volatility and Other Theoretical Approaches.  In brief, the themes covered are: volatility’s role in pricing options, controlling directional risk with delta neutral trading, predicting volatility based on forecasting IV from its current percentile, comparing historical and implied volatility to confirm trading ranges in percentile terms, trading implied volatility recognizing the trade off between being short premium versus long decay, reaffirming the relevance of the Black Scholes model with application of the Greeks, aligning a spread’s strike construction for trading the volatility skew, the aggressive calendar spread that expires within 10 days versus conventional inter-month calendars, using probability and statistics in volatility trading to rank the risk to reward profile of trades and expected return metrics to measure risk per $1 allocated.Of all the focus chapters, Chapter 6 is the heaviest on the use of numerical reasoning. Though, is not beyond anyone who is comfortable with Statistics 101.To complete the review, here’s the background of the author.  Larry is the President of McMillan Analysis Corporation, founded in 1991.  From 1982 to 1989, he headed up the Equity Arbitrage Department at Thomson McKinnon Securities, Inc. He traded the firm&#8217;s own money primarily in advanced option spreads and risk arbitrage strategies.  Between 1989-90, he was in charge of the Proprietary Option Trading Department at Prudential-Bache Securities. He traded primarily convertible Euro-bonds and Japanese warrant arbitrage strategies.  Prior to these roles, he was the retail option strategist at Thomson McKinnon from 1976 to 1980, and traded the firm&#8217;s proprietary account beginning in 1980.  He initially worked at Bell Telephone Laboratories from 1972 to 1976.  He holds an M.S. in applied mathematics and computer science.In conclusion, McMillan on Options exposes you to the full gamut of how to trade options and the essential methods required to build a sustainable and consistent trading system. Intermarket spreading and Implied Volatility forecasting are clearly the cornerstones of a solid trading system.This is not a criticism of the book but a personal observation. To complete the construction of a total trading system requires the metrics for portfolio diagnostics. I have written a separate article, entitled “Book Review -  Kenneth L. Grant, Trading Risk” that deals with portfolio management. </p>
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		<title>10 Options Strategies To Consider</title>
		<link>http://protectiveput.net/10-options-strategies-to-consider</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Jan 2010 08:50:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[diversified trading strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[options signals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[options trading systems]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stock options investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[top options trading strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[top ten options trading strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trading Strategies]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[ To that end, we&#8217;re definitely fans of buying puts and calls, no matter what your level of options experience is. The potential for explosive returns without the need for betting the farm on each trade is unrivaled in the investing world. But we&#8217;re also fans of broadening our horizons and investing in options is [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p> To that end, we&#8217;re definitely fans of buying puts and calls, no matter what your level of options experience is. The potential for explosive returns without the need for betting the farm on each trade is unrivaled in the investing world. But we&#8217;re also fans of broadening our horizons and investing in options is one of the best places to do this. With so many different options strategies, there&#8217;s literally always a way to make a profit. Let&#8217;s look at the top 10 options strategies. </p>
<p>Writing options means we are sellers of an options contract, which can be risky under some circumstances, but not with covered calls. In fact, covered call writing is probably the most conservative options-writing strategy because the contract you write is backed by your ownership of the underlying stock. Let&#8217;s say you own 500 shares of a highly liquid blue chip stock like Microsoft. Microsoft isn&#8217;t very volatile and that makes it an ideal candidate for covered call writing. It&#8217;s a good idea to write calls on stocks that aren&#8217;t very volatile because we&#8217;re going to write out-of-the-money calls and collect some income in the form of a premium for doing so. Say Microsoft is trading at $23. We might write calls on the $25 strike for the next month&#8217;s contract. The risk here is that if the underlying stock rises above the strike price before expiration, the buyer of the call can call our stock away at $25, which is a discount to the market price. Now you see why you have to own the stock you&#8217;re writing covered calls on and why you want to select stocks that are range-bound. As a rule of thumb, you would write one call contract for every 100 shares of the underlying you own. </p>
<p>Another fairly conservative options strategy is the married put trade. Married puts are a lot like covered calls in that you already own the underlying stock and you&#8217;ll buy an amount of puts equivalent to the number shares you own. Here, you&#8217;ll be long on the puts, but since you own the underlying stock, the puts act as a hedge. In other words, they give you a way to make money if the stock declines. </p>
<p>There are several different options strategies known as spreads. One of the more basic ones is the bull call spread. In this trade, you buy calls at one strike price and then sell the same amount of calls at a higher strike price. So if you bought five Microsoft 25 calls, you might sell five Microsoft 27.50 or 30 calls. The contracts have to have the same expiration month and underlying security for the trade to be considered a bull call spread. This is a bullish strategy. </p>
<p>The bearish cousin of the bull call is the bear put spread. Here you&#8217;ll buy puts at one strike price and then sell the same amount of puts at a LOWER strike price. Both strategies limit gains, but they also limit losses. </p>
<p>As you can see, a lot of options strategies offer protection to investors. Another one of these trades is the protective collar. With a protective collar, you&#8217;ll purchase an out-of-the-money put option and write (or sell) an out-of-the-money call option on the same security. This strategy is used by investors that have already gotten substantial appreciation from the underlying security as a way of locking in profits. </p>
<p>Got a feeling that a stock is about to make a big move, but you&#8217;re not sure what way the move is going to go? That&#8217;s OK because you buy both a put and call with the same strike price and expiration on the same security. This is known as the long straddle and positions you perfectly to profit from a big move in the underlying, regardless of the direction. </p>
<p>A related strategy is the long strangle, but there&#8217;s a twist with this trade. With a long strangle, you&#8217;ll buy a put and a call on the same security with same expiration date, but with different strike prices. A strangle is usually a little cheaper than a straddle because you&#8217;ll be buying out-of-the-money contracts. And with both long straddles and strangles, your loss is limited to the cost paid to enter the trade. </p>
<p>The butterfly spread is an advanced options strategy that may seem confusing to the novice options investor. In a butterfly spread, we combine bullish and bearish spreads using three different strike prices. An example of a butterfly spread would include buying one put or call at the lowest or highest available strike price, then purchasing two of whatever we didn&#8217;t purchase in the first leg at higher or lower strike prices and then one final put or call at a lower of higher strike. Let&#8217;s try to make this easy to understand. Buy one call, buy two puts, then add another call. Voila, there&#8217;s your butterfly spread. </p>
<p>Another unique options strategy that is geared more to experienced options traders is the iron condor. The iron condor is risky and complex because you simultaneously hold a long and short position in two different strangles. This is the type of trade you need to research before randomly committing money to it. </p>
<p>And our final options trade that we think you ought to know is another butterfly. The iron butterfly allows investors to combine a long or short straddle with the purchase or sale of a strangle. With the iron butterfly we use both puts AND calls, not one or the other. Using out-of-the-money options is advisable to keep costs and risks to a minimum. </p>
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		<title>Options Buyer Risk &amp; Reward</title>
		<link>http://protectiveput.net/options-buyer-risk-reward</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 10 Jan 2010 20:53:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Options Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Trading]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Like most trades, time spreads have a maximum loss for the buyer. As a buyer, you can only lose what you have spent. If you paid $1.00 for the spread then your maximum potential loss is that $1.00. If you bought the spread for $2.00, then $2.00 is the maximum potential loss.
The buyer of a [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Like most trades, time spreads have a maximum loss for the buyer. As a buyer, you can only lose what you have spent. If you paid $1.00 for the spread then your maximum potential loss is that $1.00. If you bought the spread for $2.00, then $2.00 is the maximum potential loss.<br />
The buyer of a time spread will be purchasing the out-month option while selling the nearer month option of the same strike in a one-to-one ratio. Since the out-month option will have more time until expiration than the nearer month option, the out-month option will cost more. This means the buyer will be putting out money (debit spread) which makes sense. The buyer can only lose the amount of money they spent to purchase the spread. Thus the buyer&#8217;s maximum risk is the cost of the spread.<br />
The buyer can profit in several ways. First and foremost, being a time spread, the buyer can profit by the passage of time. Options are wasting assets. So as the nearer month option decays away more quickly than the outer-month option, the spread widens (increases in value) and the buyer sees a profit.<br />
Second, implied volatility can increase. As implied volatility increases, the out-month option, which the buyer is long, increases in value more quickly (due to its higher vega) than the nearer month option which the buyer is short. This will force the spread to widen or increase in value, which again is profitable for the buyer.<br />
Third, the buyer can make money due to stock price movement. As stated before, a time spread&#8217;s value is at its maximum when the stock price and the spreads strike price are identical (at-the-money). You could have an increase in value if you owned an out-of-the-money or in-the-money time spread, and the stock moved either up or down toward your strike. As the stock moves closer to your strike, the spread will expand and increase in value creating a profit for you, the buyer.<br />
The buyer&#8217;s risks are obviously the opposite of the rewards. You can not stop or reverse time so the buyer of the spread can never be hurt by time.<br />
Implied volatility, however, can decrease as easily as it can increase. A decrease in implied volatility will decrease the value of the out-month option (which the buyer is long) faster than it will decrease the value of the nearer month option (which the buyer is short) due to the higher vega of the out-month option. This will narrow the spread thereby creating a loss for the buyer.<br />
In the same way that stock movement in the right direction can be profitable for the buyer of a time spread, stock movement in the wrong direction can be costly. As the stock moves away from the spread&#8217;s strike, the spread decreases in value. That will create a loss for the buyer of the spread. </p>
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		<title>Options Trading Strategies â Wrong Use of Historical Volatility and Implied Volatility Crossovers</title>
		<link>http://protectiveput.net/options-trading-strategies-a%c2%80%c2%93-wrong-use-of-historical-volatility-and-implied-volatility-crossovers</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 04 Jan 2010 07:44:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Historical Volatility]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[How To Trade Options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Implied Volatility]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Volatility]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Not all volatilities are constructed equal.Â  It is critical to differentiate between Historical Volatility and Implied Volatility, so retail traders learn how to trade options focused on what is material to theoretically price option spreads forward.Historical Volatility (HV) measures past price movements of the underlying asset recording the asset&#8217;s actual or realized volatility.Â  The more [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Not all volatilities are constructed equal.Â  It is critical to differentiate between Historical Volatility and Implied Volatility, so retail traders learn how to trade options focused on what is material to theoretically price option spreads forward.Historical Volatility (HV) measures past price movements of the underlying asset recording the asset&#8217;s actual or realized volatility.Â  The more commonly known type of HV is Statistical Volatility, which computes the underlying assets return over a finite but adjustable number of days.Â  Let me explain what âfinite but adjustableâ means.Â  You can vary the number of days to measure the Statistical Volatility: for example, 5-10-50-200 days, thatâs how time-based moving averages and momentum/oscillator studies are built.Â  Though, it is not the case with Implied Volatility.Implied Volatility measures expected values by repetitively refining bid-ask estimates.Â  These estimates are based on the expectations of buyers and sellers. The buyers and sellers (85+% of floor traded volume is driven by institutions, floor traders and market makers) behind the bid and ask values, who do change their estimates within the day, as new information be it macro-economic news or micro-economic data impacting the underlying product becomes available.Â  What is being estimated is the underlying assetâs future fluctuation with certain assumptions embedded into the changes in information of the underlying.Â  That refinement of bid-ask estimates must be completed within finite time-bound option expiration periods. Thatâs why there are monthly and quarterly option expiration cycles. You cannot change these expiration periods, either by shortening or lengthening the number of days, to âconstructâ a time period that gives you faster or slower crossover indicators.Why point out the wrong use of Historical Volatility and Implied Volatiity Crossovers? It is to caution you against the defective use ofÂ  HV-IV crossovers, which is not a reliable trading signal.Â  Remember, for a given expiration month, there can only be one volatility over that specific period.Â  Implied Volatility must leave from where it is currently trading at, to converge at zero on expiration date. Implied Volatility (be it IV for ITM, ATM or OTM strikes) must return to zero on expiry; but, price can go anywhere (up, down or stay flat).To continually sell âoverpricedâ and buy âunder pricedâ options would eventually cause the implied volatility of every single non-zero bid option to line up exactly.Â  Meaning the phenomenon of IVâs âsmilingâ skew disappears, as IV becomes perfectly flat. This hardly happens, especially in highly liquid products. Take for example, the SPY, a broad-based Index; or, GLD â the SPDR Shares ETF in a fast market like Gold. With open interest at the non-zero bid strikes going into the thousands and tens of thousands, do you really think a retail off the floor trader is going to be allowed to âout priceâ the professional hedger on the floor?Â  Unlikely. Calls and Puts in highly liquid products, are like items in an inventory with high supply because there is high demand.Â  This type of inventory does not get âmispricedâ because floor traders have to make a daily living from trading the Calls and Puts âthey will refuse to carry the risk of mispricing overnight.So, what are the key considerations to banking in your edge as a retail trader?  </p>
<p>Where can I learn how to trade options with consistent profits focused on Implied Volatility without Historical Volatility? Follow the link below, entitled âConsistent Resultsâ to see a model retail option traderâs portfolio that excludes the use of HV and focuses on trading only IV. Iâll cite these actual historical events, to bolster the argument for removing Historical Volatility from your trading process altogether.27 Feb, 2007: Widespread Panic from the sizeable China sell-off in equities. If you were trading the options of an index like the FXI which is the iShares product of Chinaâs 25 largest and most liquid Chinese companies though listed in the US; but they are headquartered in China, you would have been impacted. While you can argue itâs possible to have market events recreate the ranges of the Dow, Nasdaq &amp; S&amp;P, how do you recreate the scenario of the VIX and VXN soaring 59% and 39%?22Jan, 2008: Fed cuts rates by 75 basis points prior to the scheduled policy meeting on Jan 30th, whereby the FOMC cut another 50 basis points on the date of the meeting.Â  If you were trading interest-rate sensitive sectors using the options on a Financial ETF or a Banking Index like the BKX; or, the Housing Index like the HGX, you would have been impacted. And in the current environment of rates being near zero, the FOMC while they still have a rate policy tool, they are unable to cut rates by the same number of basis points like before. What was a historical event is not successively repeatable going forward, not until rates are raised again and subsequently they get cut again.Question: How do you reconstruct history?Â  That is the history of events forming Historical Volatility.Â  The answer is in the real examples cited, as with any other financially related historical event &#8211; you cannot reconstruct history. You may be able to mimic parts of HV but you cannot repeat it in its entirety.Â  So, if you continue using HV-IV crossovers, you visually confuse yourself by searching for volatility âmispricingâ patterns that you would like to see; but, you will end up with poor profit performance instead.Â  It makes more practical trading sense to focus purely on IV; then, diversify the trading of volatilities across multiple asset classes beyond equities.Where can I learn more about trading IV across multiple asset classes using only options, without having to own stock? Follow the link below (video-based course), that uses IV Mean Reversion/Mean Repulsion and IV Forecasting, as reliable methods to trade the implied volatilities across broad-based Equity Indexes, Commodity ETFs, Currency ETFs and Emerging Market ETFs. </p>
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		<title>Options Trading Strategies &#8211; Book Review &#8211; Sheldon Natenberg, Option Volatility and Pricing</title>
		<link>http://protectiveput.net/options-trading-strategies-book-review-sheldon-natenberg-option-volatility-and-pricing</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 03 Jan 2010 20:26:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[How To Trade Options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Implied Volatility]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Option Pricing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sheldon Natenberg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Volatility]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[As with most books on the topic of how to trade options, the amount of material to get through can be daunting. For example, with Sheldon Natenberg’s Option Volatility &#38; Pricing, it is about 418 pages to digest.  There are adequate reader reviews on Amazon and Google Book Search, to help you decide if you [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As with most books on the topic of how to trade options, the amount of material to get through can be daunting. For example, with Sheldon Natenberg’s Option Volatility &amp; Pricing, it is about 418 pages to digest.  There are adequate reader reviews on Amazon and Google Book Search, to help you decide if you will get the book. For those who have just started or are about to read the book, I’ve summarized the core concepts in the larger and essential chapters to help you get through them quicker.The number on the right of the title of the chapter is the number of pages contained within that chapter. It is not the page number.  The percentages represent how much each chapter makes up of the 418 pages in total, excluding appendices.1  The Language of Options.  12, 2.87%.2  Elementary Strategies.  22, 5.26%.3  Introduction to Theoretical Pricing Models.  16, 3.83%.4  Volatility.  30, 7.18%.5  Using an Option&#8217;s Theoretical Value.  14, 3.35%.6  Option Values and Changing Market Conditions.  32, 7.66%.7  Introduction to Spreading.  10, 2.39%.8  Volatility Spreads.  36, 8.61%.9  Risk Considerations.  26, 6.22%.10  Bull and Bear Spreads.  14, 3.35%.11  Option Arbitrage.  28, 6.70%.12  Early Exercise of American Options.  16, 3.83%.13  Hedging with Options.  16, 3.83%.14  Volatility Revisited.  28, 6.70%.15  Stock Index Futures and Options.  30, 7.18%.16  Intermarket Spreading.  22, 5.26%.17  Position Analysis.  32, 7.66%.18  Models and the Real World.  34, 8.13%.Focus on chapters 4, 6, 8, 9, 11, 14, 15, 17 and 18, which makes up about 66% of the book.  These chapters are relevant for practical trading purposes. Here are the key points for these focus chapters, which I’m summarizing from a retail option trader’s perspective.4  Volatility. Volatility as a measure of speed in context of price in/stability for a given product in a particular market.  Despite its shortcomings, the definition of volatility still defaults to these assumptions of the Black-Scholes Model: 1. Price changes of  a product remain random and cannot be engineered, making it impossible to predict price direction prior to its movement. 2. Percent changes in the product’s price are normally distributed.  3. As the product’s price percent changes are counted as continuously compounded, the product’s price on expiry will become lognormally distributed.  4. The lognormal distribution’s mean (mean reversion) is to be found in the product’s forward price.6  Option Values and Changing Market Conditions.  Use of Delta in its 3 equivalent forms: Rate of Change, Hedge Ratio &amp; Theoretical Equivalent of the  Position.  Treatment of Gamma as an option&#8217;s curvature to explain the opposite relationship of OTM/ITM strikes to the ATM strike having the highest Gamma. Dealing with the Theta-Gamma inverse relationship, as well as Theta being intertwined synthetically as long decay and short premium with Implied Volatility, as measured by Vega.8  Volatility Spreads. Emphasis is on the sensitivities of a Ratio Back Spread, Ratio Vertical Spread, Straddle/Strangle, Butterfly, Calendar, and Diagonal to Interest Rates, Dividends and the 4 Greeks with specific attention on the effects of Gamma and Vega.9  Risk Considerations. A sobering reminder to select spreads with the lowest aggregate risk spread versus the highest probability of profit.  Aggregate Risk as measured in terms of Delta (Directional Risk), Gamma (Curvature Risk), Theta (Decay/Premium Risk) and Vega (Volatility Risk).11  Option Arbitrage. Synthetic positions are explained in terms of manufacturing an equivalent risk profile of the original spread, using a mix of single options, other spreads and the underlying product. Clear caution that transforming trades into Conversions, Reversals and Adjustments are not risk-free; but, may raise the trade&#8217;s nearer-term risks even though the longer-term net risk is lowered.  There are material differences in the cash flows of being long options versus short options, arising from the Skew bias unique to a product and the interest rate built into Calls making them disparate against Puts.14  Volatility Revisited.  Different expiry cycles between near-term versus longer-term options creates a longer-term volatility average, a mean volatility.   When volatility rises above its mean, there is relative certainty that it will revert to its mean. Likewise, mean reversion is highly likely as volatility drops below its mean. Gyration around the mean is an identifiable characteristic. Discernible volatility traits make it essential to forecast volatility in 30 day periods: 30-60-90-120 days, give the typical term to be short credit spreads between 30-45 and long debit spreads between 90-120 days.  Reconciling Implied Volatility as a measure of consensus volatility of all buyer/sellers for a given product, with inconsistencies in Historical Volatility and predictive constraints of Future Volatility.15  Stock Index Futures and Options. Effective use of Indexing to remove single stock risk.  Distinct treatment of the risks for stock-settled Indexes (including impact of dividend/exercise) separate from cash-settled Indices (absent of dividend/exercise).  Explains logic for Theoretically Pricing the options on Stock Index Futures, in addition to pricing the Futures contract itself, to determine which is economically viable to trade &#8211; the Futures contract itself or the options on the Futures.17  Position Analysis.  A more robust method than just eye balling the Delta, Gamma, Vega and Theta of a position is to use the relevant Theoretical Pricing model (Bjerksund-Stensland, Black-Scholes, Binomial) to scenario test for changes in dates (daily/weekly) before expiration, % changes in Implied Volatility and price changes within and near +/- 1 Standard Deviation. These factors feeding the scenario tests, once graphed, reveal the relative ratios of Delta/Gamma/Vega/Theta risks in terms of their proportionality impacting the Theoretical Price of specific strikes making up the construction of a spread.18  Models and the Real World. Addresses the weaknesses of these core assumptions used in a traditional pricing model: 1. Markets are not frictionless: buying/selling an underlying contract has restrictions in terms of tax implications, limitation on funding and transaction costs. 2. Interest rates are variable, not constant over the option&#8217;s life. 3. Volatilty is variable, not constant over the options&#8217; life. 4. Trading is not continous 24/7 &#8211; there are exchange holidays resulting in gaps in price changes.  5. Volatility is linked to Theoretical Price of the underlying contract, not independent of it. 6. Percentage of price changes in an underlying contract does not result in a lognormal distribution  of underlying prices at distribution due to Skew &amp; Kurtosis.To conclude, reading these chapters is not academic. Understanding techniques discussed in the chapters must enable you to answer the following key questions.  In the total inventory of your trading account, if you are … </p>
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		<title>Options Trading Strategies &#8211; Book Review &#8211; Guy Cohen, The Bible of Options Strategies</title>
		<link>http://protectiveput.net/options-trading-strategies-book-review-guy-cohen-the-bible-of-options-strategies</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 03 Jan 2010 08:47:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Credit Spreads]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Guy Cohen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[How To Trade Options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Option Spreads]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Option Trading]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Most trading literature on option strategies tend to lean towards mathematical formulas to define the construction of a spread.  Guy Cohen has chosen to use pictorial logic, even with the Greeks unique to a particular strategy, to piece together the legs of a spread with diagrams.Diagrams that connect with each other are a much more [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Most trading literature on option strategies tend to lean towards mathematical formulas to define the construction of a spread.  Guy Cohen has chosen to use pictorial logic, even with the Greeks unique to a particular strategy, to piece together the legs of a spread with diagrams.Diagrams that connect with each other are a much more intuitive way to learn for those less inclined to numerical formulas.  Still, the logic of the math remains robust and intact. The layout of the book makes it easy to navigate around the text.  In addition to strategies being listed by the chapter and page there is a reference to the strategy’s main category with sub-categories, which are: </p>
<p>Guy Cohen has extensive experience of both the US and UK derivatives and stock markets.  He specializes in trading and analytics applications ranging from real estate to derivatives and has developed comprehensive business, trading and training models, all expressly designed for maximum user-friendliness. There are adequate reader reviews on Amazon and Google Book Search, to help you decide if you will get the book. For those who have just started or are about to read the book, I’ve summarized the core concepts in the larger and essential chapters to help you get through them quicker.The number on the right of the title of the chapter is the number of pages contained within that chapter. It is not the page number.  The percentages represent how much each chapter makes up of the 302 pages in total, excluding appendices.1  The Four Basic Options Strategies.  20, 6.62%.2  Income strategies.  68, 22.52%.3  Vertical Spreads.  30, 9.93%.4  Volatility Strategies.  56, 18.54%.5  Sideways Strategies.  44, 14.57%.6  Leveraged Strategies.  20, 6.62%.7  Synthetic Strategies.  54, 17.88%.8  Taxation for Stock and Options Traders.  10, 3.31%.Focus on chapters 2, 4, 5 and 7, which makes up about 74% of the book. These chapters are relevant for practical trading purposes.  Here are the key points for these focus chapters, which I’m summarizing from a retail option trader’s perspective. Chapter 2: Income Strategies. These strategies construct spreads where part of the spread sells Theta as premium within a shorter term (typically 30-45 days), to collect income.  In its entirety the strategy may result in a Net Debit or Net Credit spread.  There are 13 types of spreads in this category: Covered Call, Short (Naked) Put, Bull Put Spread, Bear Call Spread, Long Iron Butterfly, Long Iron Condor, Covered Short Straddle, Covered Short Strangle, Calendar Call, Diagonal Call, Calendar Put, Diagonal Put and a Covered Put (a.k.a. Married Put).Chapter 4: Volatility Strategies. These strategies use spreads that are indifferent to price direction, so long as price explodes out of range.  For a given explosion in price, the volatility of the spread needs to rise for a Net Debit spread and fall for a Net Credit spread,.  There are 11 spread types are defined in this category: Straddle, Strangle, Strip, Strap, Guts, Short Call Butterfly, Short Put Butterfly, Short Call Condor, Short Put Condor, Short Iron Butterfly and Short Iron Condor.Chapter 5: Sideways Strategies. These strategies involve non-directional spreads, requiring price to drift within a confined range. As price remains range bound, the volatility of the spread needs to rise for a Net Debit spread and fall for a Net Credit spread.  There are 11 types of spreads in this category: Short Straddle, Short Strangle, Short Guts, Long Call Butterfly, Long Put Butterfly, Long Call Condor, Long Put Condor, Modified Call Butterfly, Modified Put Butterfly, Long Iron Butterfly and Long Iron Condor. Chapter 7: Synthetic Strategies. Synthetic strategies mimic the risk profile of a stock, futures or other option position by combining calls, puts with or without stock.  Though typically, most synthetic positions are either long or short stock.  If you have a 401K plan or employee stock purchase plan that is long stock, then it may make sense to consider synthetic strategies, as you are already long Delta.  There is unlimited risk for some synthetic spreads, regardless if the strategy involves stock or not.  There are disadvantages to using synthetics.  12 spread types are defined in this category: Collar, Synthetic Call, Synthetic Put, Long Call Synthetic Straddle, Long Put Synthetic Straddle, Short Call Synthetic Straddle, Short Put Synthetic Straddle, Long Synthetic Future, Short Synthetic Future, Long Combo, Short Combo and Long Box.From a retail option trader’s viewpoint, I prefer to establish positions without the use of stock.  Using stock synthetically in a position makes each trade more capital intensive than it needs to be.  Especially, if your trading account is below USD $50,000.  The use of stock in configuring these positions does not add material merit in controlling risk and there is no added monetary benefit in tying up available trading capital in a stock-dependent synthetic position that could otherwise be achieved without the use of stock.  As an options trader in the first place, you want as little to do with the stock itself as possible, other than to configure the required option position around the underlying product, which can be substituted with a cash-settled Index instead of a stock-settled Index.Out of a total of 56 strategies covered in the book, I have reduced the list down to 35 Limited Risk Spread types that do not need to include stock as part of its original construction.  Limited Risk means there is a cap to the maximum loss – “Capped Risk” is the term used in the book. This should always be the starting point of any strategy you choose to construct. Do not just look at the unlimited profit (Uncapped Reward) side of the strategy without realizing that there is an unlimited loss (Uncapped Risk) side to same strategy.Limited Risk Spreads with “Unlimited” Reward and their Directional outlook.1. Long Call.    Bullish.2. Long Put.    Bearish.    3. Put Ratio Backspread.    Bearish; reverse Bullish.4. Call Ratio Backspread.    Bullish; reverse Bearish.        5. Straddle.    Indifferent/~Neutral.6. Strangle.    Indifferent/~Neutral.7. Strip.    Bearish.8. Strap.    Bullish.    9. Guts.    Indifferent/~Neutral.    1-9 are Debit spreads: IV needs to rise.10. Bull Put Ladder.    Bearish.    10-11 are Credit spreads: IV needs to fall.11. Bear Call Ladder.    Bullish.    Limited Risk Spreads with Limited Reward and their Directional outlook.12. Bear Put Spread.    Bearish.13. Bull Call Spread.    Bullish.14. Long Call Calendar.    Bullish; Indifferent/~Neutral.15. Long Put Calendar.    Bullish; Indifferent/~Neutral.16. Long Call Butterfly.    Indifferent/~Neutral.17. Long Put Butterfly.    Indifferent/~Neutral.18. Long Box.    Indifferent/~Neutral.19. Long Call Condor.    Indifferent/~Neutral.20. Long Put Condor.    Indifferent/~Neutral.21. Long Iron Butterfly.    Indifferent/~Neutral.22. Long Iron Condor.    Indifferent/~Neutral.    12-22 are Debit spreads: IV needs to rise.23. Bear Call Spread.    Bearish.    23-35 are Credit spreads: IV needs to fall.24. Bull Put Spread.    Bullish.25. Short Iron Butterfly.    Indifferent/~Neutral.26. Short Iron Condor.    Indifferent/~Neutral.27. Diagonal Call.    Bearish.28. Diagonal Put.    Bullish.29. Modified Call Butterfly.    Bearish to ~Neutral.30. Modified Put Butterfly.    Bullish to ~Neutral.31. Short (Naked) Put.    Bullish.32. Short Call Butterfly.    Indifferent/~Neutral.33. Short Call Condor.    Indifferent/~Neutral.34. Short Put Butterfly.    Indifferent/~Neutral.35. Short Put Condor.    Indifferent/~Neutral.Other than the 35 Defined Risk Spreads that do not require stock as part of their original construction for entry, there are 6 Defined Risk spreads that need stock to configure their positions. The 6 positions that I have deliberately excluded from the list above are the Long Call Synthetic Straddle, Long Put Synthetic Straddle, Synthetic Call, Synthetic Put, Collar and Covered Call.In conclusion, for new to intermediate traders do not be overwhelmed by the 56 strategies in the book.  It’s entitled the “Bible of Options Strategies” for a reason. What is critical is to get a deep understanding of the Long Call, Long Put, Short Call, Short Put, Long Vertical Call/Put, Short Vertical Call/Put and the Long Calendar Call/Put. That is the 4 Basic Options Strategies, plus the Vertical and the Calendar – the only 2 strategies that floor traders define as true spreads. The other combinations are a mixture of the basics with or without stock. </p>
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		<title>Options Trading Lessons: Vertical Spreads</title>
		<link>http://protectiveput.net/options-trading-lessons-vertical-spreads</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 01 Jan 2010 07:42:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Options Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Trading1]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[There are two main types of vertical spreads. There is the vertical call spread and the vertical put spread. Each spread allows you to do two things. First, you can buy it, making you long the vertical spread. Second, you can sell it making you short the vertical spread. Both can be employed to take [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There are two main types of vertical spreads. There is the vertical call spread and the vertical put spread. Each spread allows you to do two things. First, you can buy it, making you long the vertical spread. Second, you can sell it making you short the vertical spread. Both can be employed to take advantage of directional stock plays. When we use the term &#8216;directional stock play,&#8217; we refer to using vertical spreads to capitalize on anticipated stock movements either up or down.<br />
A bull spread is used when the investor feels that a stock is most likely to go up. As we recall, &#8216;bullish&#8217; means to have a positive outlook on a stock&#8217;s future movement. There are two ways to set up a bull spread. The first is with the use of calls. In this case, a bullish investor would buy a vertical call spread (bull call spread). This is accomplished by buying a call with a lower strike price and selling a call with a higher strike price.<br />
The second way to construct a bull spread is with the use of puts. A bullish investor could sell a vertical put spread (bull put spread) hoping to profit from an increase in the stock&#8217;s value. The investor would sell a put with a higher strike price and buy a put with a lower strike price. Let&#8217;s take a look at how the P&amp;L chart of a Bull Spread looks below.<br />
To recap, if you feel a stock will be increasing in value, you may put on a bull spread by either buying a vertical call spread (bull call spread) or selling a vertical put spread (bull put spread)<br />
A bear spread, however, is used when, you the investor, feels a stock is likely to trade down. Remember, &#8216;bearish&#8217; means that one&#8217;s outlook on the future movement of the stock is negative. To take advantage of this expected downward movement, the investor would put on a bear spread. This can be done in either of two ways.<br />
First, the investor can do it using puts. The purchase of a vertical put spread (bear put spread) can be accomplished by purchasing a put with a higher priced strike and selling a put with a lower priced strike.<br />
The second way an investor can construct a bear spread is by using calls, specifically, by selling a vertical call spread (bear call spread). You do this by selling a call with a lower strike price and purchasing a call with a higher strike price.<br />
So if you think that a stock is likely to decrease in value, you sell a vertical call spread (bear call spread) or purchase a vertical put spread (bear put spread). Let&#8217;s take a look at the P&amp;L diagram for a Bear Spread below.<br />
Finally, there are two fundamentals that are universal to all vertical spreads. These fundamentals are critical to understanding the foundation of the vertical spread strategy: (1) you can determine a vertical spread&#8217;s maximum value by taking note of the difference between the two strikes and (2) vertical spreads have intrinsic value. </p>
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		<title>Options Trading Mastery: Behavior of the Time Spread</title>
		<link>http://protectiveput.net/options-trading-mastery-behavior-of-the-time-spread</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 31 Dec 2009 08:27:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Options Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Trading1]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Time spreads can be a profitable investment strategy if you understand the concept of time decay. A time spread is designed to take advantage of the fact that an options decay curve is non-linear, that is, an option&#8217;s value does not decay evenly over time. As an option gets closer to expiration, its rate of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Time spreads can be a profitable investment strategy if you understand the concept of time decay. A time spread is designed to take advantage of the fact that an options decay curve is non-linear, that is, an option&#8217;s value does not decay evenly over time. As an option gets closer to expiration, its rate of decay increases meaning the option loses value more quickly. That decay rate increases progressively until expiration.<br />
An option&#8217;s decay rate begins to accelerate when the option is about 45 days out. It picks up steam at 30 days out and really comes under decay pressure at about 15 days out. This scenario is similar to a boulder rolling down from a hilltop.  As it starts, it rolls slowly, then gains more speed, and momentum the further it gets down the hill until it achieves its maximum speed at the bottom. Option decay acts the same way &#8211; gathering speed and momentum as the option approaches expiration.<br />
In time spreads, both options have the same strike price that remains constant. Each option&#8217;s value decays at different rates and over different lengths of time. The option, with one month until expiration, experiences value decay at a faster rate than the one with three months until expiration.<br />
If you buy an option with three months to go and sell an option with the same strike but with one month to go, you have set up a spread between the two options values (prices). As time passes, your short option loses value more quickly than your long option that decays more slowly. The value of the spread widens and you profit from that spread&#8217;s expansion. This is the fundamental behavior of the time-spread.<br />
Consider that you are long the 60-30 day time spread. That means you are long the 60-day option and short the 30-day option. We will assign a price of $3.00 to the 60-day option and $2.00 to the 30-day option. Since you pay for the one and receive payment for the other, the bottom line cost of what you put out for the spread is $1.00.<br />
During the same 30-day period, it goes from $3.00 to $2.00. Remember, the spread&#8217;s bottom line cost was $1.00. The 30-day option (now expired) will be worth $0 while the 60-day option (now a 30-day option) will be worth $2.00. If you had invested in this spread, after 30 days decay you would be holding one option worth $2.00. The investment has provided a nice return!<br />
This is an ideal situation. The stock price and volatility remain constant and you capture the decay. The time spread has worked just as it should. It does work that way sometimes, but nothing works as it should all the time. As we know, stock prices and volatility levels do not remain constant. They are always changing. In the time spread strategy, the investor must choose opportunities carefully. In addition to picking a stock that will be in a stagnant period, the investor should look for two other situations where the spread has profit possibilities: changes in volatility and to a lesser degree stock price movements. </p>
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		<title>Options Trading Mastery: Effects of Volatility on the Time Spread</title>
		<link>http://protectiveput.net/options-trading-mastery-effects-of-volatility-on-the-time-spread</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Dec 2009 19:40:53 +0000</pubDate>
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				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Options Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Trading1]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[When purchasing a time spread, the investor should pay attention to not only the movement of the stock price, but also the movement of volatility. It plays a very large roll in the price of a time spread, which is an excellent way to take advantage of anticipated volatility movements in a hedged fashion.
Option Volatility
Since [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When purchasing a time spread, the investor should pay attention to not only the movement of the stock price, but also the movement of volatility. It plays a very large roll in the price of a time spread, which is an excellent way to take advantage of anticipated volatility movements in a hedged fashion.<br />
Option Volatility<br />
Since the time spread is composed of two options, the investor should understand the role of volatility in options as well as in time spreads. Let us start with option volatility.<br />
We measure an option&#8217;s volatility component by a term called Vega. Vega, one of the components of the pricing model, measures how much an option&#8217;s price will change with a one-point (or tick) change in implied volatility. Based on present data, the pricing model assigns the Vega for each option at different strikes, different months and different prices of the stock.<br />
Vega is always given in dollars per one tick volatility change. If an option is worth $1.00 at a 35 implied volatility and it has a .05 Vega, then the option will be worth $1.05 if implied volatility were to increase to 36 (up one tick) and $.95 if the implied volatility were to decrease to 34 (down one tick).<br />
Keep these facts in mind as we continue to discuss Vega:<br />
1. Vega measures how much an option price will change as volatility changes.<br />
2. Vega increases as you look at future months and decreases as you approach expiration.<br />
3. Vega is highest in the at-the-money options.<br />
4. Vega is a strike-based number. It applies whether the strike is a call or a put.<br />
5. Vega increases as volatility increases and decreases as volatility decreases.<br />
It is important to note that an option&#8217;s volatility sensitivity increases with more time to expiration. Further out-month options have higher Vegas than the Vegas of the near term options. The further out you go over time, the higher the Vegas become. Although increasing, they do not progress in a linear manner. When you check the same strike price out over future months you will notice that Vega values increase as you move out over future months.<br />
The at-the-money strike in any month will have the highest Vega. As you move away from the at-the-money strike in either direction, the Vega values decrease and continue to decrease the further away you get from the at-the-money strike. Remember, Vega (an option&#8217;s volatility component value) is highest in at-the-money, out-month options. Vega decreases the closer you get to expiration and the further away you move from the at-the-money strike.<br />
The chart below shows Vega values for QCOM options. Observe the important elements. The stock price is constant at 68.5. Volatility is constant at 40. Time progresses from June to January. Finally, the strike price changes from 50 through 80. Notice the increasing pattern as you go out over time and how the value decreases as you move away from the at-the-money strike.<br />
Chart 3- Vega<br />
Stock Price 68.5  Vol. 40<br />
Strike	June	July	October	January<br />
50	   0	.008	.064	.114<br />
55	.004	.030	.102	.153<br />
60	.023	.063	.135	.184<br />
65	.053	.090	.157	.205<br />
70	.056	.094	.165	.215<br />
75	.032	.077	.154	.213<br />
80	.011	.052	.142	.203<br />
Another important fact about Vega is that it is a strike-based number. This means that the Vega number does not differentiate between put and call. Vega tells the volatility sensitivity of the strike regardless of whether you are looking at puts or calls. Therefore, the Vega number of a call and its corresponding put are identical.<br />
The chart below shows the Vega values for calls and the corresponding puts. As you can see, these values match up in every instance.<br />
Chart 6<br />
Strike Price-Call Vega-Put Vega<br />
June<br />
60	.023	.023<br />
65	.053	.053<br />
70	.056	.056<br />
July<br />
60	.063	.063<br />
65	.090	.090<br />
70	.094	.094<br />
October<br />
60	.135	.135<br />
65	.157	.157<br />
70	.165	.165<br />
January<br />
60	.184	.184<br />
65	.205	.205<br />
70	.215	.215<br />
Vega can also calculate how much a specific option&#8217;s price will change with a movement in implied volatility. You simply count how many volatility ticks implied volatility has moved. Multiply that number times the Vega and either add it (if volatility increased) to the option&#8217;s present value or subtract it (if volatility decreased) from the option&#8217;s present value to obtain the option&#8217;s new value under the new volatility assumption. The calculation works on individual options and can analyze the value of the time spread.<br />
Apply Vega to Time Spreads<br />
Now, let us apply the concepts of Vega to the Time Spread. When you apply the Vega concept to time spreads, you observe that as implied volatility increases, the value of the time spread increases. This is because the out-month option, with the higher Vega will increase more than the closer month option with the lower Vega. That widens or increases the spread.<br />
The chart below shows a time spread and its reaction to increasing volatility. Each time that implied volatility increases, the value of the time spreads increase. This increase would naturally favor the buyer.<br />
Chart 4<br />
Stock Price $	Vol.	June / July 65	Oct / July 65<br />
65.5	30	1.09	2.09<br />
65.5	40	1.43	2.75<br />
65.5	50	1.77	3.41<br />
65.5	60	2.11	4.05<br />
65.5	70	2.49	4.60<br />
If an investor bought the time spread at low volatility and within a few weeks volatility had increased and pushed the spread price higher, the investor could sell the spread at a profit even before expiration.<br />
Of course, the Vega can also demonstrate the opposing effect. As implied volatility decreases, the spread tightens or decreases in value. As volatility comes down, the out-month option with its higher Vega will lose value more quickly than will the nearer month option with its lower Vega. In the chart below, you will see how decreasing volatility affects the time spread&#8217;s value.<br />
Chart 5<br />
Stock Price $	Vol.	June / July 65	Oct / July 65<br />
65.5	70	2.49	4.60<br />
65.5	60	2.11	4.05<br />
65.5	50	1.77	3.41<br />
65.5	40	1.43	2.75<br />
65.5	30	1.09	2.09<br />
Glance back to Charts 4 and 5. Take note that the stock price is constant. The changes in the price of the spreads are due to the change in volatility.<br />
We discussed how to use Vega to calculate an option&#8217;s price when volatility changes. The same calculation method works for time spreads but the calculation is slightly more difficult. </p>
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